Is home advantage fading in Europe's top five leagues? 24 seasons of home wins
Home teams won 46.5% of matches in the early 2000s and 42.9% in the 2020s, while away wins rose from 26.0% to 31.7%. The empty stadiums of 2020-21 were the sharpest dip, but not the whole story.
Home advantage is one of football's oldest certainties: play in front of your own supporters and you are more likely to win. We counted how much more likely, season by season, across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga. Across 43,074 matches, the home side won 45.4%, the visitors 28.8% and 25.8% ended level. But the average hides a slide: home teams won 46.5% of matches in the six seasons from 2002-03, and 42.9% in the six seasons from 2020-21, while away wins rose from 26.0% to 31.7%.
The obvious suspect is the pandemic, and 2020-21, played largely behind closed doors, is indeed the sharpest dip in the data. But the slide started before it, and it did not fully reverse once the crowds returned.
The method
Every league season publishes a results grid with one score for each home and away pairing. We counted, for each season, how many matches the home side won, how many were drawn and how many the visitors won, and divided by matches played. A home win rate here is home wins divided by all matches, so draws stay in the denominator. The window is the same 2002-03 to 2025-26 used in our draws study, because that is as far back as we can check each season against a second source.
Each season's counts were reconciled against its final league table, which was itself read from two independent sources: matches played and draws had to match exactly, and total goals had to match too. 113 of the 120 league-seasons matched on the first pass. In five of the other seven, we traced the difference to individual scores mistyped in the grid and corrected them from ESPN's match-by-match results; two of those corrections changed an outcome (Strasbourg v Nancy in Ligue 1 2007-08 was 0-0, not a 1-0 away win, and Brest v Lens in Ligue 1 2025-26 was 3-3, not a home win). The remaining two, Ligue 1 2006-07 and 2013-14, differ for a different reason: in each, the league later awarded one match, so the on-pitch score in the grid and the result in the final table disagree. Nantes v Toulouse in 2006-07 was stopped at 0-0 after a pitch invasion and the win was awarded to Toulouse; in 2013-14, Nantes beat Bastia 2-0 but were stripped of the win for fielding a suspended player, and Bastia were credited with it. We count the official result, as the final tables do. Ligue 1 2019-20, curtailed by COVID-19 after 279 of 380 matches, is the only league-season left out, as in our other studies. That leaves 119 league-seasons, which is why 2019-20 in the chart covers four leagues instead of five.
One more detail: Ligue 1 2025-26 includes the Nantes v Toulouse match that was abandoned in the 22nd minute at 0-0 after a pitch invasion, with the score later upheld by the league. It counts as a draw, as it does in the final table.
Season by season, all five leagues together
- 2002-03: 47.7%
- 2003-04: 46.6%
- 2004-05: 46.9%
- 2005-06: 45.5%
- 2006-07: 46.1%
- 2007-08: 46.2%
- 2008-09: 47.2%
- 2009-10: 48%
- 2010-11: 46.7%
- 2011-12: 46.5%
- 2012-13: 45.6%
- 2013-14: 46.6%
- 2014-15: 45%
- 2015-16: 44.4%
- 2016-17: 48.6%
- 2017-18: 45.3%
- 2018-19: 44.7%
- 2019-20: 43.4%
- 2020-21: 39.9%
- 2021-22: 42.8%
- 2022-23: 45.7%
- 2023-24: 43.1%
- 2024-25: 42%
- 2025-26: 44%
For the first 17 seasons, 2002-03 to 2018-19, the series stayed in a band between 44% and 49%. The highest pooled season is 2016-17, with 888 home wins in 1,826 matches (48.6%). Then 2019-20 slipped to 43.4% and 2020-21 collapsed to 39.9%, the lowest of all 24. Fit a straight line through the 24 seasons and it falls by about 0.2 points a year; take 2020-21 out and the slope is almost unchanged, at 0.18. In other words, the pandemic season is the extreme point, not the cause of the trend.
| Period | Home wins | Draws | Away wins | Home minus away (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-03 to 2007-08 | 46.5% | 27.5% | 26.0% | 20.4 |
| 2008-09 to 2013-14 | 46.8% | 25.6% | 27.7% | 19.1 |
| 2014-15 to 2019-20 | 45.3% | 24.9% | 29.8% | 15.5 |
| 2020-21 to 2025-26 | 42.9% | 25.4% | 31.7% | 11.2 |
The block view shows what moved. Draws barely changed after the first block, from 25.6% to 24.9% to 25.4%. The home wins that disappeared did not turn into draws: they turned into away wins. The gap between the two, home wins minus away wins, shrank from 20.4 points in 2002-03 to 2007-08 to 11.2 points in the most recent block.
2020-21: the empty-stadium season
Across the five leagues in 2020-21, home teams won 39.9% of matches (729 of 1,826) and visitors won 34.7% (633), a gap of 5.3 points against 20.4 in the early 2000s. Premier League sides lost more at home than they won: 144 home wins against 153 away wins in 380 matches. Ligue 1 was level at 142 to 143. They are the only two league-seasons among the 119 in which away wins matched or exceeded home wins.
| League | Home wins, 2020-21 | Away wins, 2020-21 | Matches | Home win rate, league's other seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 144 (37.9%) | 153 (40.3%) | 380 | 46.0% |
| La Liga | 158 (41.6%) | 113 (29.7%) | 380 | 47.0% |
| Serie A | 156 (41.1%) | 128 (33.7%) | 380 | 44.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 142 (37.4%) | 143 (37.6%) | 380 | 45.2% |
| Bundesliga | 129 (42.2%) | 96 (31.4%) | 306 | 45.4% |
The Premier League and Ligue 1 fell furthest, by roughly eight points each, to under 38%. La Liga fell 5.4 points, Serie A 3.3 and the Bundesliga 3.2. The Bundesliga is the one place where the year does not look exceptional: its 42.2% home win rate was the fourth lowest of its 24 seasons, not the lowest.
The crowds came back. The home wins only partly did.
If empty stadiums were the whole story, 2022-23 onward should look like the old normal. 2022-23 did, with 45.7%. Since then the rate has been 43.1%, 42.0% and 44.0%, and the four seasons together average 43.7% (3,097 home wins in 7,082 matches), against 46.6% in 2002-03 to 2013-14 and 45.3% in 2014-15 to 2019-20. The recovery is real, but it stops short of where the series started.
The lowest individual numbers tell the same story. Before 2020, no league-season fell below 40.0% home wins; the lowest was Serie A in 2014-15, at exactly 40.0%. Since then seven have. Two are 2020-21 (the Premier League at 37.9% and Ligue 1 at 37.4%). The other five came later: Serie A in 2021-22 (38.9%), 2024-25 (39.7%) and 2025-26 (38.9%), Ligue 1 in 2023-24 (39.2%) and the Bundesliga in 2024-25 (38.6%).
Every league has lost ground, Serie A most
| League | 2002-03 to 2013-14 | 2014-15 to 2025-26 | Change (points) | All seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 46.9% | 44.4% | −2.5 | 45.6% |
| La Liga | 48.0% | 45.7% | −2.3 | 46.8% |
| Serie A | 46.5% | 42.1% | −4.4 | 44.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 45.7% | 43.8% | −1.8 | 44.8% |
| Bundesliga | 46.0% | 44.5% | −1.5 | 45.2% |
All five leagues have a lower home win rate in the second half of the window than in the first. Serie A fell the most, 4.4 points, from 46.5% to 42.1%, and has the lowest figure overall at 44.3%. La Liga fell 2.3 points but is still the most home-friendly league across the whole window, at 46.8%. The Bundesliga fell the least, 1.5 points.
The extremes of the series
- Highest home win rate: Bundesliga, 2003-04, 52.3% (160 home wins in 306 matches). La Liga holds the next two, 51.8% in 2010-11 and 51.1% in 2009-10.
- Lowest home win rate: Ligue 1, 2020-21, 37.4% (142 in 380), followed by the Premier League in the same season (37.9%).
- Highest pooled season: 2016-17, 48.6%. Lowest: 2020-21, 39.9%.
- Only two league-seasons with at least as many away wins as home wins: Premier League and Ligue 1, both 2020-21.
The full season-by-season data
| Season | Premier League | La Liga | Serie A | Ligue 1 | Bundesliga | Five leagues |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-03 | 187 (49.2%) | 176 (46.3%) | 143 (46.7%) | 186 (48.9%) | 144 (47.1%) | 836 (47.7%) |
| 2003-04 | 167 (43.9%) | 172 (45.3%) | 132 (43.1%) | 185 (48.7%) | 160 (52.3%) | 816 (46.6%) |
| 2004-05 | 173 (45.5%) | 192 (50.5%) | 166 (43.7%) | 177 (46.6%) | 149 (48.7%) | 857 (46.9%) |
| 2005-06 | 192 (50.5%) | 162 (42.6%) | 176 (46.3%) | 170 (44.7%) | 131 (42.8%) | 831 (45.5%) |
| 2006-07 | 182 (47.9%) | 172 (45.3%) | 173 (45.5%) | 181 (47.6%) | 134 (43.8%) | 842 (46.1%) |
| 2007-08 | 176 (46.3%) | 182 (47.9%) | 175 (46.1%) | 167 (43.9%) | 143 (46.7%) | 843 (46.2%) |
| 2008-09 | 173 (45.5%) | 184 (48.4%) | 192 (50.5%) | 165 (43.4%) | 147 (48.0%) | 861 (47.2%) |
| 2009-10 | 193 (50.8%) | 194 (51.1%) | 186 (48.9%) | 179 (47.1%) | 125 (40.8%) | 877 (48.0%) |
| 2010-11 | 179 (47.1%) | 197 (51.8%) | 179 (47.1%) | 157 (41.3%) | 141 (46.1%) | 853 (46.7%) |
| 2011-12 | 171 (45.0%) | 188 (49.5%) | 173 (45.5%) | 179 (47.1%) | 139 (45.4%) | 850 (46.5%) |
| 2012-13 | 166 (43.7%) | 189 (49.7%) | 177 (46.6%) | 170 (44.7%) | 130 (42.5%) | 832 (45.6%) |
| 2013-14 | 179 (47.1%) | 179 (47.1%) | 181 (47.6%) | 167 (43.9%) | 145 (47.4%) | 851 (46.6%) |
| 2014-15 | 172 (45.3%) | 171 (45.0%) | 152 (40.0%) | 181 (47.6%) | 145 (47.4%) | 821 (45.0%) |
| 2015-16 | 157 (41.3%) | 183 (48.2%) | 175 (46.1%) | 160 (42.1%) | 135 (44.1%) | 810 (44.4%) |
| 2016-17 | 187 (49.2%) | 181 (47.6%) | 184 (48.4%) | 186 (48.9%) | 150 (49.0%) | 888 (48.6%) |
| 2017-18 | 173 (45.5%) | 179 (47.1%) | 164 (43.2%) | 173 (45.5%) | 139 (45.4%) | 828 (45.3%) |
| 2018-19 | 181 (47.6%) | 168 (44.2%) | 166 (43.7%) | 164 (43.2%) | 138 (45.1%) | 817 (44.7%) |
| 2019-20 | 172 (45.3%) | 174 (45.8%) | 158 (41.6%) | 134 (48.0%)* | 123 (40.2%) | 627 (43.4%) |
| 2020-21 | 144 (37.9%) | 158 (41.6%) | 156 (41.1%) | 142 (37.4%) | 129 (42.2%) | 729 (39.9%) |
| 2021-22 | 163 (42.9%) | 165 (43.4%) | 148 (38.9%) | 162 (42.6%) | 143 (46.7%) | 781 (42.8%) |
| 2022-23 | 184 (48.4%) | 182 (47.9%) | 161 (42.4%) | 163 (42.9%) | 145 (47.4%) | 835 (45.7%) |
| 2023-24 | 175 (46.1%) | 167 (43.9%) | 159 (41.8%) | 120 (39.2%) | 134 (43.8%) | 755 (43.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 155 (40.8%) | 169 (44.5%) | 151 (39.7%) | 143 (46.7%) | 118 (38.6%) | 736 (42.0%) |
| 2025-26 | 162 (42.6%) | 186 (48.9%) | 148 (38.9%) | 141 (46.1%) | 134 (43.8%) | 771 (44.0%) |
What this doesn't mean
A falling home win rate does not by itself show that crowds matter less, or more. We counted results, not causes, and several things changed over 24 years: how teams travel and prepare, how closely matches are officiated, how evenly talent is spread. 2020-21 was a natural experiment, but not a clean one: restrictions on spectators differed from country to country and month to month, and we have not split matches by crowd size. The closed-door finish to 2019-20 sits inside that season's single figure for the same reason. And a league-season is a small sample: ten matches is 2.6 points of home win rate over 380 games. What the data does support is narrower than the headline: the home win rate has fallen about three and a half points since the early 2000s, almost all of it replaced by away wins, and the empty stadiums of 2020-21 produced the extreme, not the whole decline.
Picks for you
Advertising. Affiliate links — we may earn a commission on your purchases, at no extra cost to you. It does not influence our editorial coverage.
Keep reading
StatsAre draws disappearing from Europe's top five leagues? 24 seasons say: only a little
Across 119 complete league seasons since 2002-03, 25.8% of matches in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and Bundesliga ended level. Draws have slipped by about 1.35 points since the early 2000s — but the fall stopped around 2014.
StatsPremier League goals per match, season by season: up or down since 1992?
Thirty-four seasons of Premier League scoring data, checked and recomputed season by season, show no steady rise or fall — until 2023-24 broke the competition's 31-year-old scoring record.
StatsLa Liga goals per match, season by season: what 29 years of data show
29 seasons of La Liga scoring data, verified season by season, show a flat long-run average hiding a real hump: a Messi-Ronaldo-era peak in 2016-17 and a sharp decline once Ronaldo left Spain.