Anton Stach finds the one gap Matz Sels left, and Leeds steal the City Ground at 88

For 87 minutes this was heading for the 0-0 that both sides had more or less earned. Then Leeds got a free-kick in Anton Stach's range, and Matz Sels was still setting his wall when the ball was past him at the near post.

It was a goalkeeping error and a specialist's strike at the same time — Stach hit it early, low and to the side Sels had left, and the City Ground went quiet.

Forest will regret the first 80 minutes more

Nikola Milenkovic hit the woodwork. Igor Jesus headed over from a good position. Chris Wood dragged a shot wide. Forest had 55.2% of the ball and twelve shots and put only two of them on target.

That is the difficulty with losing this way: the free-kick is what everyone will talk about, but a side that converts one of three clear chances never gets to the 88th minute needing to defend a set piece at all.

Leeds, for their part, were not much better with the ball — 71% pass accuracy, the lowest of the round so far. They did not need to be.

Match facts

• 88' — Anton Stach (Leeds United), free-kick
• Milenkovic hit the post for Forest
• Igor Jesus and Chris Wood both missed clear openings

How the five matchweeks since have gone

Forest's afternoon at the City Ground turned out to be the first result in a run that has kept them in the same mid-table blur they were sat in on 22 August. They drew 2-2 at Liverpool a week later, were held 0-0 at home by Tottenham Hotspur on 5 September, won 2-1 away at Aston Villa on 12 September, then lost 0-1 to Coventry City back at the City Ground on 19 September. One win from five, four goals scored and five conceded leaves Nuno Espírito Santo's side 13th on five points, a goal difference of minus one — level on points with 12th-placed Manchester United, but behind them on goal difference, and two points clear of Bournemouth in 17th, the closest side to the relegation zone.

Leeds have had much the better of it since Stach's free-kick. The win started a run of two more wins and three draws: 1-1 at home to Brentford, 1-1 away at Brighton, a 4-1 win over Newcastle United on 14 September and a goalless draw with Crystal Palace on 20 September. Nine points from five games without a defeat has them fifth — inside the Champions League places by the finest of margins, level on points with fourth-placed Brentford and only one place above Liverpool.

A one-match history

The City Ground meeting is still the only time these two clubs have played each other in the Premier League, so there is no broader head-to-head pattern to draw on — Stach's 88th-minute winner is, for now, the entire record between Nottingham Forest and Leeds United.

What's next

Nottingham Forest go to Liverpool on Saturday 29 August, which is a hard place to go looking for a first point of the season. Leeds host Brentford on Sunday 30 August, with three points already banked and rather more belief than the performance strictly earned them.